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Goldman Sachs traders flagged a first-ever negative correlation. October’s performance shows the divergence, but the relationship is weak—not a reliable opposite-direction trade.
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Investors tracking AI financing may be seeing a divergence in how markets price exposure: Apple rose 4.4% in October as the Nasdaq-100 fell nearly 5%, while Goldman Sachs traders measured Apple’s trailing three-month correlation with the index at about -0.1. CNBC reported on October 26 that this was the first negative reading, versus 0.97 at one point in 2020 and 0.91 in 2025. The mild reading does not make Apple a reliable hedge; it may reflect concerns over debt-funded AI expansion and Apple’s comparatively restrained AI push.
The -0.1 reading covers only the trailing three months; it signals weak divergence, not a consistent inverse relationship.
CNBC cited earlier correlations of 0.97 at one point in 2020 and 0.91 in 2025, underscoring the shift from historical co-movement.
Compared with Apple, Alphabet and Meta have launched chatbots and personal AI agents, while investors question debt used to fund AI build-outs.
Apple shares are moving less like the technology benchmark they once closely tracked. Their trailing three-month correlation with the Nasdaq-100 has turned negative for the first time, Goldman Sachs traders said, according to CNBC’s October 26 report. The finding comes as Apple gains while concerns about financing AI expansion weigh on other technology stocks.
The correlation coefficient—the measure of how closely the stock and index move together—was around -0.1 over the trailing three months. That is only mildly negative. The finding is a break from their earlier close relationship, not evidence that Apple now consistently rises whenever the Nasdaq-100 falls.
The historical contrast is substantial. CNBC put the correlation at 0.97 at one point in 2020 and as high as 0.91 in 2025. Those earlier readings show how closely Apple and the index had moved together before this year’s shift. The current figure describes a recent three-month window, rather than Apple’s relationship with the index across all of 2026.
Apple’s October gain as reported by CNBC on October 26.
The index’s October decline over the same reported period.
CNBC linked the recent divergence to a change in how investors view AI commitments. Apple has pursued AI less aggressively than Alphabet and Meta, which have launched chatbots and personal AI agents. The article argues that Apple’s more cautious approach may now be helping its shares, rather than simply leaving it behind more aggressive rivals.
The immediate concern is borrowing: investors are questioning whether some companies are taking on too much debt to fund their AI build-outs. Against that backdrop, Apple’s October advance stands apart from the benchmark’s decline. CNBC suggested the separation could make Apple a potential safety trade amid AI-related volatility. That is a possible role for the stock, not a demonstrated guarantee of protection.
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