ASML lifts 2026 sales floor as AI demand supports stronger Q4 outlook

ASML expects a stronger fourth quarter than analysts had forecast, citing continued AI-driven demand for its chipmaking equipment. But its October 14 outlook makes a more measured change to the full year: the company raised the bottom of its 2026 sales range, while leaving the upper target at €45 billion.

Quarterly expectations rise on sales and margin

The Dutch company forecast fourth-quarter net sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion and a gross margin of around 57%, according to Reuters. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected €14.19 billion in sales and a 55.4% gross margin.

The sales range starts only slightly above the analyst estimate. Its upper end leaves room for a larger beat, but that is not the same as a completed sales result. The figures describe what ASML expects to deliver in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The margin comparison adds a second measure of strength: ASML’s forecast exceeds the LSEG consensus, rather than merely pairing higher expected sales with an in-line margin. Both parts of the quarterly outlook therefore sit above analysts’ expectations.

An AI-demand signal from the equipment supplier

For the full year, ASML now expects net sales between €44 billion and €45 billion, compared with its previous €43 billion–€45 billion range. It forecast an annual gross margin of around 56%, below the roughly 57% level it expects for the fourth quarter.

ASML attributed continuing strength in equipment demand to AI. That puts its explanation at the manufacturing-equipment stage of the AI buildout: the company supplies machines used to produce chips, rather than reporting sales of AI chips themselves.

ASML is the world’s largest supplier of chipmaking equipment and the only maker of the EUV machines needed for the most advanced chips. That position makes its outlook a closely linked signal of spending on the tools behind advanced-chip production.