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More than 90% of the proposed capacity is in the US. The research warns that plants built to bypass grid delays could keep running after connections arrive.
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BloombergNEF’s November 11 report inventories 181 GW of proposed on-site gas capacity for data centers, with more than 90% in the US; it is a tally of announcements, not a build forecast. Under its modeled scenario in which every proposed US plant is built and operated, emissions would reach 345 million metric tons annually—152 million tons above average-grid supply—raising the risk that interim power remains in use after grid connections arrive. Faster grid access and clean-power procurement could reduce that incentive, though the report says evidence on which connection policies work best remains limited.
BloombergNEF projects data-center electricity demand will reach 2,354 TWh by 2035, nearly four times current levels and 7% of global electricity use.
In Britain, planned data centers made more than 100 inquiries about gas connections in 2024–25, according to Future Energy Networks.
The UK’s October 28 Data Centre Covenant proposes temporary on-site generation only for exceptionally strategic projects when other measures cannot provide enough capacity in time.
Data-center developers have proposed 181 gigawatts of gas-fired generation alongside their facilities, according to new BloombergNEF research. More than 90% is in the United States. The findings highlight a risk behind the race to power AI: plants intended to bridge a wait for electricity connections could become long-term sources of emissions.
Published November 11, the report, Powering the Data Center Boom: How Grid Policy Can Deliver Clean Power Faster, was commissioned by Bloomberg Philanthropies. It examines how electricity-connection policy affects the climate impact of data-center growth, with developers facing grid constraints in the US and Europe.
The headline capacity figure measures announced proposals, not an expected construction total. BloombergNEF says the projects vary widely in maturity and timing. Its inventory indicates the potential scale of on-site gas generation; it is not a forecast that every proposed plant will be built.
The immediate driver is the gap between developers’ construction ambitions and the electricity system’s ability to connect them. BloombergNEF finds that grid constraints are delaying connections for large electricity users. Financial rewards for bringing computing capacity online quickly are pushing some developers toward their own gas-fired supply while they wait.
Mark Daly, BloombergNEF’s head of data centers and emerging technology, attributes that urgency to the extraordinary economics around AI. The report projects that data-center electricity demand will almost quadruple to 2,354 terawatt-hours by 2035, accounting for 7% of global electricity consumption. That projection covers data centers, not AI facilities alone.
BloombergNEF estimates this annual total if every announced US on-site gas plant were built and operated under its modeling assumptions.
That scenario would emit this much more annually than supplying the associated data-center capacity with average US grid electricity—equivalent to 10% of US power-sector emissions in 2025.
BloombergNEF warns that the economics could encourage developers to keep gas plants running after grid connections arrive. Many projects are intended as interim supplies, but connecting a facility does not necessarily end the financial incentive to generate its own electricity. The report identifies this as a longer-term fossil-fuel lock-in risk.
For developed markets such as the US and Europe, BloombergNEF identifies grid-connected data centers as the more sustainable option. It argues that faster connections can limit both near-term emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. But the recommendation also requires continued cuts in the emissions of the electricity system supplying those connections.
The study reviews policies across 17 markets, including financial commitments, flexible connections, special zones and clean-power procurement. These offer routes to address connection delays and emissions together. However, BloombergNEF says the policy landscape is still emerging, with limited empirical evidence showing which approaches will prove most effective.
The pressure is already visible in Britain. Planned data centers made more than 100 inquiries about gas connections in 2024–25 amid electricity-grid delays, according to Future Energy Networks, cited by the Guardian. Wapseys Wood in Buckinghamshire and Quest Park in Bedfordshire are among the projects seeking on-site gas-fired stations.
The UK government’s Data Centre Covenant, published October 28, proposes a restricted route to temporary on-site generation. It says ministers will develop a tightly controlled framework allowing generation until a grid connection can be secured. That is a commitment to develop a framework, rather than blanket permission for data centers to build fossil-fuel plants.
Eligibility would be limited to exceptionally strategic projects where other measures cannot secure sufficient capacity in time, subject to conditions including energy security. The covenant leaves the definition of strategic data centers and additional criteria for later. It also proposes reserving and reallocating grid capacity and identifying locations with power available before 2030.
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