ETF strategists say AI supply constraints could strengthen Big Tech’s grip

Two investment strategists are making a bullish case out of the AI trade’s latest risks: Nvidia’s leadership turmoil and possible limits on data-center construction. In CNBC’s November 14 account of ETF Edge interviews, Dave Mazza and Dan Ives argued that companies with computing capacity already in place could gain an advantage if expansion slows.

Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Investments, said the largest cloud companies could benefit because they already have computing resources available. His condition was important: that capacity becomes more valuable if demand remains strong. Roundhill manages the Magnificent Seven ETF, which gives his assessment a direct connection to the large technology stocks under discussion.

Ives, a partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Ives, put numbers on the potential construction slowdown. He estimated that Democratic control of Congress could mean 10% of planned data centers do not get built at the low end, rising to 15%–20% at the high end. Those are his forecasts, not a count of canceled projects.

Yet Ives estimated that demand still exceeds supply four to one. In his view, slower construction would make existing capacity more valuable rather than undermine the AI investment case. He treated a brake on expansion as protection against overbuilding, not evidence that customers no longer need the computing power.

Mazza applied a similar demand-first argument to chips: investors who lose trust in Nvidia may look for other suppliers because the need for chips remains. His interview took place Monday, November 9, before Jensen Huang’s Thursday resignation, CNBC reported. The outlet said finance chief Colette Kress became interim CEO.

That confidence came with a lower valuation target. Yorkville Ives cut its Nvidia price target to $225 from $300 on Thursday while maintaining a buy rating. Nvidia finished the week at $162.85. Ives pointed to a chip roadmap already laid out across upcoming product families and the company’s workforce as reasons to look beyond its founder.

The week’s trading showed sharply different fortunes within the AI trade. AMD gained close to 13%, and Broadcom posted similar gains, according to CNBC. Nvidia, by contrast, recorded its longest losing streak since 2012. Those moves provide context for the strategists’ arguments, rather than confirmation that their longer-term forecasts will prove correct.

Roundhill’s funds also showed why one positive week does not settle the infrastructure debate. Its Magnificent Seven ETF gained less than 1%, while its Neocloud ETF, focused on smaller specialist cloud companies, rose more than 1%. The latter nevertheless remained down 39% since its August launch, amid concerns about balance-sheet strength and Nvidia’s role in financing the buildout.

For Nvidia, the next scheduled opportunity to address investors comes Tuesday, November 17, when it reports third-quarter earnings. Kress will face the market as interim CEO, with the company’s leadership transition now sitting alongside the wider debate over who benefits from constrained AI supply.