Palantir lifts outlook as U.S. commercial sales top U.S. government revenue

Wall Street expected Palantir to deliver $2.18 billion in third-quarter revenue. It delivered $2.31 billion—and a first for a company long associated with government work: U.S. commercial revenue surpassed U.S. government revenue. The November 2 results paired that shift with earnings above estimates and a higher full-year outlook for its U.S. commercial business.

U.S. commercial revenue rose 148% from a year earlier to $984 million. CNBC linked the growth to businesses adopting more of Palantir’s artificial intelligence tools. Over the past two years, the company’s U.S. commercial revenue has more than quintupled, extending the change beyond a single quarter.

The crossover did not come from a shrinking government business. U.S. government revenue increased 96% to $953 million. Commercial customers finished just $31 million ahead, so the milestone describes a narrow lead in revenue despite a much larger difference between the two businesses’ growth rates.

Palantir’s two U.S. businesses

01$984 million

U.S. commercial

Third-quarter revenue grew 148% from a year earlier.

02$953 million

U.S. government

Third-quarter revenue grew 96% from a year earlier.

Across the company, quarterly revenue nearly doubled from a year earlier and exceeded $2 billion for the first time, Palantir said. The $2.31 billion total was $130 million above the $2.18 billion consensus estimate compiled by LSEG, putting the revenue beat alongside the shift in its U.S. customer mix.

Adjusted earnings reached 44 cents a share, compared with analysts’ expectation of 41 cents. Net income, a separate measure from adjusted earnings per share, rose to $1.13 billion from about $476 million a year earlier. That more than doubled the company’s quarterly profit.

Palantir now expects full-year U.S. commercial revenue of more than $3.56 billion, up from the $3.42 billion forecast it issued last quarter. The new outlook raises that target by at least $140 million; it is a forecast for the full year, not revenue already recorded.

For the company as a whole, management projects about $2.65 billion in fourth-quarter revenue and about $8.53 billion for 2026. The fourth-quarter target is above the $2.31 billion just reported, setting an expectation of further growth after the quarter that established the new U.S. commercial lead.