US Data Centers Could Use 1.125 Trillion Liters of Water by 2030, Straining Dry Regions

A rapid data-center buildout could put new pressure on already dry parts of the United States even though cooling accounted for less than 1 percent of national water consumption in 2023. By 2030, US data centers could consume as much as 1.125 trillion liters annually under a forecast from Fengqi You’s research group.

One footprint, two very different scales

Researchers estimated that US data-center cooling systems consumed 66 billion liters in 2023. The national total can mask the practical conflict: growing capacity may add significant water stress in drought-strapped places such as Arizona and New Mexico, while creating less concern in water-rich regions.

The 2023 figure and the 2030 forecast are not like-for-like measures. The earlier estimate covers cooling; the forecast also includes water used to generate electricity. Coal- and gas-fired plants require water to cool steam after it turns turbines, extending a facility’s water footprint beyond its own cooling equipment.

The choices behind the forecast

Per-query water claims are a poor guide to that system-level result. Shaolei Ren says his 2024 estimate that a short GPT-4 email used 500 milliliters of water is already outdated as models have become more efficient. Google estimated that a median-length Gemini query used about five drops in 2025, but that is a company estimate for one chatbot, not a universal AI measure.

• Power: Moving toward solar and wind can reduce water use because they require little to no water to operate, unlike fossil-fuel generation.
• Siting: Locating facilities away from drought-prone areas and near renewable supply could significantly reduce the footprint. You estimates siting and related measures could cut future AI water use by up to 86 percent.
• Cooling: Liquid systems can recirculate cooled fluid in a closed loop, but extreme heat or humidity can still require extra water-based cooling.

Efficiency does not settle the local question

Texas shows the range of possible outcomes. Data centers now consume less than 1 percent of the state’s water demand, but researchers estimated a 3 to 9 percent share by 2040. Engineers expect efficiency gains to reduce that eventual figure, leaving local climate, electricity infrastructure and facility design as the decisions that will determine the burden.