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Altman Targets Internal AGI by End of 2026, as Astra Tests OpenAI’s Definition

The target depends on an economics-based definition of general intelligence and company-described research performance, while the field still lacks a shared technical finish line.

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Altman Targets Internal AGI by End of 2026, as Astra Tests OpenAI’s Definition
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OpenAI says it could have an internal system it would call artificial general intelligence by the end of 2026. The claim depends on the company’s own definition: highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work. Sam Altman says OpenAI has not reached that threshold yet, while chief research officer Mark Chen says the company is about 80 percent of the way there. That figure is an internal estimate, not a finish line the broader research community agrees on. The more concrete test is Astra, an upcoming model family meant to act like an automated research intern. Chief scientist Jakub Pachocki says Astra can take a research idea, write code in OpenAI’s codebase, run experiments, and return the results. He also says it can handle paper-based tasks that once took a human researcher roughly a week. Altman expects Astra to be the first model that invents new things in a way that matters. But completing a research workflow is not the same as reliably producing important new knowledge—and that gap is central to the AGI debate. OpenAI is also pushing agents into products: its internal project The Merge combines Codex with ChatGPT to produce ChatGPT Work, shifting the emphasis from answers to task execution. The near-term question is whether persistent agents can do valuable work over sustained periods. That result could strengthen OpenAI’s case, but it still would not settle what AGI requires.

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3 key points

OpenAI’s AGI roadmap is being tested against a nearer product question: whether Astra can operate as a persistent research agent. Chief research officer Mark Chen puts the company 80% of the way to its internally defined threshold—systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—while Altman has not said it is achieved. Astra is expected to code, run experiments, and handle week-long research tasks;...

  1. 01

    Astra is designed to turn a research idea into code, execute experiments in OpenAI’s codebase, and return results.

  2. 02

    Pachocki says Astra can tackle paper-based tasks that previously took a human researcher about a week.

  3. 03

    OpenAI’s consumer agent push includes The Merge, which combines Codex with ChatGPT to produce ChatGPT Work.

Sam Altman says OpenAI could have an internal system he would call artificial general intelligence by the end of 2026. The claim turns on OpenAI’s own definition of AGI and Astra, an upcoming model family the company describes as capable of extended research work; neither resolves the underlying dispute over what the label should require.

A deadline set by an internal standard

OpenAI defines AGI as highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work. The term has no precise technical definition, and researchers disagree over whether language-model-based systems can make discoveries and generalize in the ways AGI would require.

Altman has said OpenAI has not reached that point yet. Mark Chen, the company’s chief research officer, estimated that OpenAI is 80% of the way to AGI—an internal measure, rather than an independently agreed finish line.

I expect this will be the first model where the model actually invents new things in a way that matters.

Sam Altman, on Astra’s potential impact, as quoted by TIME

Astra is the operating proof point

Astra is intended to function as an automated AI research intern. Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki said it can take an experimental idea, write code in OpenAI’s codebase, run the experiment and return results. He also said it can work from a research paper on tasks that would have taken a human researcher about a week.

Those capabilities describe an agent that can execute a research loop, not necessarily one that produces important discoveries. Astra is also intended to support persistent agents—virtual coworkers that work autonomously on tasks over longer periods. Whether that work reliably generates new knowledge remains the material distance between OpenAI’s described system and Altman’s AGI framing.

The consumer path centers on task completion

OpenAI is combining Codex with ChatGPT in an internal effort called The Merge, which has produced ChatGPT Work. The stated product shift is from answering questions toward handling tasks, putting the company’s agent ambitions before a broader audience.

Commercial work alongside the AGI push

  • OpenAI is testing advertisements in ChatGPT, according to TIME.
  • It is also testing Sponsored Agents, a format that takes users to a brand-hosted AI experience after an ad click.
  • OpenAI is working on several devices, including a puck-shaped, voice-controlled device TIME expects in early 2027.

The nearer test is narrower than the AGI label: whether OpenAI can ship persistent agents that complete valuable work over sustained periods. A working research agent would strengthen its case, but would not settle the argument over whether that performance is general intelligence.

Sources

  1. the-decoder.comSam Altman says OpenAI will have AGI by the end of 2026 if you accept his definition

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