BloombergNEF Raises Its 2035 Data-Center Gas Forecast to 18 Billion Cubic Feet Daily

BloombergNEF has sharply raised its outlook for the fuel behind America’s AI buildout: U.S. data centers could consume about 18 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day by 2035. That is nearly twice the group’s estimate from nine months ago, even after accounting for announced projects that may never be completed. If the forecast materializes, the consequence reaches beyond the campuses: gas prices, household utility costs and emissions could all rise.

The visible plants are not the main driver

On-site power has become the conspicuous response to constrained grid connections. Meta, Microsoft, Google and Amazon have announced data-center projects with new natural-gas plants that bypass the grid. BloombergNEF projects those projects will use 2.9 billion to 3.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2035—roughly comparable to all data-center gas consumption today, including gas used to generate grid electricity.

But the forecast’s larger story is the ordinary grid connection. BloombergNEF expects grid-connected data centers to add 15 billion cubic feet per day of gas consumption by the power sector by the middle of the next decade. That would be five times the demand growth expected from all other grid-connected sectors combined through 2035.

A power-market problem, not just a corporate one

Data centers are projected to become the second-largest driver of U.S. natural-gas demand growth over the next decade, behind liquefied natural gas exports. Analysts at Noreva warned that the combined pressure from rising data-center demand and LNG exports could lift gas prices. Deep-pocketed technology companies may be able to absorb higher costs; utility customers may have less room to do so.

Why the distinction matters

• An on-site plant can avoid a grid connection, but it does not capture the bulk of projected gas-demand growth.
• Grid-connected expansion puts pressure on the power system shared with homes and other businesses.
• FERC’s large-load rules aim to make large customers pay for needed generation and transmission upgrades in covered regions, but Texas, Georgia and Arizona are outside those rules.

The emissions estimate depends on the buildout arriving

The forecast is not a prediction that every announced campus will open. BloombergNEF explicitly adjusted its estimate for projects that may not be completed. It is also a fuel-demand outlook, not a guarantee about the precise mix of plants that would generate the electricity.

Still, the climate arithmetic is stark. Using an International Energy Agency estimate that a cubic foot of gas produces 60 grams of carbon-dioxide equivalent across extraction, processing and distribution, the reported additional data-center demand would produce an estimated 1 million metric tons of greenhouse-gas pollution a day. That is an estimate built on the projected demand—not a measured future emissions total.

The practical contest is therefore not simply gas plants versus the grid. It is whether the grid can add enormous new computing loads quickly while making the developers that need new infrastructure bear its cost. BloombergNEF’s revision suggests that answer will shape far more gas demand than the most visible on-site projects alone.