New Street estimates Nvidia’s China revenue exposure at $37 billion to $47 billion

Nvidia’s financial exposure to China extends beyond chips sold there, according to a November 9 analysis from New Street Research. The firm estimates that $37 billion to $47 billion of fiscal 2027 revenue could be tied directly or indirectly to China, CNBC reported, including sales booked elsewhere and computing capacity under Chinese control abroad.

New Street puts the direct and indirect exposure at roughly 10% of Nvidia’s revenue. Its analysis cites a consensus forecast of $411 billion in total fiscal 2027 revenue. These are estimates of revenue connected to China, not a forecast that Nvidia will lose that amount.

Where the China connection enters

The largest category is straightforward: New Street classifies 6% of Nvidia’s revenue as legal sales into China and Hong Kong. That category accounts for more of the estimated exposure than the two indirect routes combined.

The remaining 4% is revenue booked outside China. New Street estimates that half of this category involves chips physically diverted into China. The other half involves Chinese-controlled offshore capacity: computing resources outside China that remain under Chinese control.

Those routes describe different connections to China. In one, the hardware ends up inside the country. In the other, the computing capacity is offshore. New Street includes both in its exposure estimate, rather than counting only sales recorded in China and Hong Kong.

6%Legal sales into China and Hong Kong

New Street classifies 6% of Nvidia’s revenue as legal sales into China and Hong Kong.

4%China-linked revenue booked elsewhere

New Street splits this category equally between physical diversion into China and Chinese-controlled offshore capacity.

Export controls frame the risk

The U.S. maintains export controls on some of Nvidia’s most advanced chips. Chinese firms have also reportedly accessed Nvidia-powered computing capacity through other countries. That access is distinct from physically shipping a chip into China—the distinction behind New Street’s two indirect categories.

Nvidia’s stated position is that it complies with U.S. law. At its 2026 annual shareholders meeting, the company told investors it was committed to compliance and worked with the AI ecosystem and U.S. government. That statement predates Monday’s estimate; it was not a response to New Street’s figures.