SpaceX heads into earnings with AI spending and financing under scrutiny

SpaceX is expected to release third-quarter results on October 20, 2026, after markets close, with investors watching whether revenue is catching up with its AI ambitions. Only its second earnings report as a public company, the release will put fresh numbers beside a business that spent $15.8 billion on AI in the previous quarter.

The AI business inside the rocket company

SpaceX absorbed Elon Musk’s xAI in February, before its June stock-market debut. Its earnings now bring together launches, Starlink connectivity and AI computing. That combination makes this more than a check on the space business: investors are also assessing the revenue and costs of an AI operation housed within the same company.

The investment reaches across data centers such as Colossus and products including Grok and its agent, Grok Bot, according to Yahoo Finance. The AI unit, identified there as SpaceXSI, recorded a $1.26 billion operating loss in the second quarter. That was smaller than the $2.39 billion loss analysts had expected, even as spending exceeded expectations.

The revenue benchmarks for Tuesday

Analysts expect a substantial increase in company-wide revenue. LSEG figures cited by Reuters put the third-quarter forecast at about $12.74 billion, with earnings of 14 cents a share. Second-quarter revenue was $7.8 billion, alongside a $541 million net loss. These are the expectations going into the release, not results SpaceX has already delivered.

Starlink remains an important part of the picture. Shawn Campbell, an adviser at Camelthorn Investments who owns SpaceX shares, told Reuters that Starlink revenue growth mattered more than launch counts for this earnings report. Connectivity revenue, which includes Starlink, rose 66% to $4.3 billion in the second quarter.

Two further benchmarks distinguish near-term business performance from management’s longer-range revenue ambition:

• Connectivity: Analysts expect $4.45 billion in third-quarter revenue and $1.66 billion in operating profit, according to Yahoo Finance.
• Recurring revenue: CFO Bret Johnsen said in September that SpaceX would reach $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by year-end, Yahoo Finance reported.

The borrowing behind the buildout

Revenue growth is only one side of analysts’ calculations. In a Monday note cited by Yahoo Finance, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas called the need for additional financing a key concern weighing on investor sentiment. He described financing as the biggest risk to his model, while arguing that a world in which SpaceX could not raise money would have wider economic implications.

Jonas models SpaceX issuing $60 billion in debt in 2027, $80 billion in 2028 and $90 billion in 2029. Those figures are his projections, not announced borrowing commitments. They show how much financing his outlook assumes, beyond the question of whether SpaceX meets this quarter’s revenue forecast.

Evercore ISI’s outlook also pairs rapid revenue growth with heavy investment. Reuters reported that the firm expects SpaceX to finish 2026 at an annualized revenue pace of about $104 billion, driven largely by AI. It estimates capital spending of about $151 billion in 2027. Both remain analyst forecasts, leaving Tuesday’s report as the next check on that trajectory.