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The analyst sees openings in server processors and custom-chip programs, even as purpose-built AI chips threaten AMD’s Instinct business.
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William Blair’s AMD upgrade and Nvidia downgrade hinge on possible openings in both AI accelerators and server CPUs, not on a confirmed change at Nvidia: the reported board deliberations over CEO Jensen Huang’s future had not resulted in an announced departure. Analyst Sebastien Naji also cautioned that custom AI chips could pressure AMD’s Instinct business, though CPU sales alongside those systems may offer another path to growth. For investors, the call is a bet on AMD gaining share while Nvidia faces leadership uncertainty and Intel struggles to deliver server processors.
On November 12, William Blair raised AMD to Outperform from Market Perform and cut Nvidia to Market Perform from Outperform.
CNBC cited a Wall Street Journal report that Nvidia board members were preparing to remove Jensen Huang; no departure had been announced.
Naji identified custom chips at Meta and OpenAI as a threat to AMD’s Instinct accelerators, but said CPU attachment could also create sales opportunities.
William Blair is turning more bullish on AMD while pulling back from Nvidia, betting that rivals’ difficulties will create opportunities. The investment firm upgraded AMD and downgraded Nvidia on November 12, citing a potential leadership vacuum at Nvidia and server-processor challenges at Intel. Yet it also flagged a competitive threat to AMD’s AI chips.
In a Thursday client note quoted by CNBC, analyst Sebastien Naji argued that increased scrutiny of Nvidia and a possible gap in its leadership could create an opening for AMD.
The leadership concern follows reported deliberations over CEO Jensen Huang’s future. CNBC cited a Wall Street Journal report published late November 11 that Nvidia board members were preparing to remove Huang—not an announced departure.
Raised from market perform in the November 12 analyst action.
Lowered from outperform in the same analyst action.
Naji said application-specific integrated circuits—custom chips designed for particular tasks—remain a risk to AMD’s Instinct AI-chip business, particularly at Meta and OpenAI. Nvidia’s difficulties do not remove that competition.
At the same time, he sees those custom programs as a potential source of processor sales for AMD. His note points to CPU attachment: selling central processing units alongside custom-chip programs. That offers AMD a route into those systems beyond winning sales for its own AI accelerators.
Intel supplies another part of the rationale. Naji said its Xeon server-processor roadmap continues to face delays and supply problems, potentially helping AMD gain share.
Naji put the addressable server CPU market at $220 billion by 2030. He argued that AMD is addressing that opportunity a full year ahead of Intel and could push its revenue share above the low-to-mid-40% range cited in his initial coverage.
CNBC reported that Nvidia shares had fallen 16% since November 3, while AMD had risen 14% over the same period.
The AMD upgrade brings William Blair into line with an already bullish analyst consensus. LSEG data cited by CNBC showed 48 of 56 analysts rating AMD a buy or strong buy.
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